By Stephen Keegan, Senior Counsel, WIA
Provisioning mobile service via satellites, referred to as Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS), Non-terrestrial Networks (NTN), or Direct-to-Device (D2D) services, has garnered significant attention in the communications space. Recent headline-grabbing deals include a planned acquisition by SpaceX of spectrum licenses owned by EchoStar while many other mobile network operators—and some device manufacturers—are partnering with satellite companies directly to integrate this functionality into their networks. As experts and consumers begin to speculate about “space-based cell service,” a natural question arises: will this reduce the need for traditional, ground-based infrastructure like cell towers?
The short answer is no—while space may be the “final frontier” it is unlikely to be the final evolution of mobile wireless networks. The longer answer, as more deeply explored in this latest white paper from TMF Associates, involves addressing questions of spectrum access and capacity, along with physical constraints, that will likely preclude this technology from being more than a supplement to terrestrial-based networks.
This is not to say, however, that satellites will not play an important role in the communications landscape. In much the same way most people will never have to use a fire extinguisher in their home, you still want to know it is there and ready should the need arise. SCS services will similarly help to ensure reliable mobile coverage in the hardest to reach areas—and may just enable you to make a call or send a text when it matters most.
Will SCS remain supplemental for the foreseeable future?
One of the key facets at the heart of this debate is spectrum; how much is available and how an operator can put it to work. Spectrum is the lifeblood of wireless communications. Whether carried by a cell tower or a satellite, every signal depends on the availability of clear, licensed frequencies. However, as consumers continue to expect more from their mobile connections it is increasingly difficult, and expensive, to find available frequencies.
SpaceX’s acquisition provides a helpful example of the opportunities for satellite providers while also highlighting the challenges and limitations inherit in these deployments. At its core, SpaceX’s purchase of EchoStar’s spectrum is an effort to accelerate its ability to deliver limited cellular services directly from its Starlink satellite constellation. Owning mid-band spectrum will enable SpaceX to test and expand partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) for supplemental connectivity—particularly in remote areas where tower construction is not practical. While this acquisition would give SpaceX a valuable foothold with frequencies that are already coordinated for terrestrial use, it will still be hard-pressed to deliver the kind of service most consumers rely on. A challenge that only becomes more acute as more subscribers seek to utilize these systems.
As Tim Farrar notes in his 2025 white paper, suitable frequency bands for satellite SCS are “scarce and costly,” and sharing spectrum with terrestrial networks “has proved challenging,” forcing operators like SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile to rely on the limited spectrum already allocated for Mobile Satellite Services (MSS). This view is shared by other industry analysts such as Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson who emphasized there was “no scenario” in which SpaceX could compete directly with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile in urban areas.
While SpaceX’s multibillion-dollar spectrum purchase expands its reach in remote regions, Moffett noted that “it is not remotely competitive in terms of coverage, speed, and throughput” compared to what terrestrial networks deliver. These constraints underscore why SCS will remain complementary to—rather than competitive with—traditional wireless infrastructure.
This means cell towers are sticking around. Satellite connectivity may extend the edge of coverage, but the core of network capacity—and profitability—remains firmly grounded in traditional wireless infrastructure. According to CTIA, last year Americans used 132 exabytes of data—that is 132 followed by eighteen zeros, or roughly one tenth of all the data on the internet transmitted each year over mobile networks in the U.S. alone. This represents a 35% year-over-year increase in demand for mobile data. High-bandwidth activities, including streaming and video calls, and latency-sensitive applications like augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), Internet of Things (IOT), and Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML), will continue to rely on the high-capacity, low-latency performance that terrestrial wireless networks deliver for both mobile broadband and increasingly for broadband in the home or business.
So, why the headlines on SCS?
The recent uptick in announcements is likely indicative of an inflection point in the broader space economy. Steadily declining launch costs paired with innovation and improvements to the technology on satellites and in earth stations have begun to make non-terrestrial networks a viable option for providing connectivity in certain scenarios. These changes have led to an emerging trend in the wireless industry where providers are seeking to integrate SCS services into their existing networks, allowing carriers to extend coverage in hard-to-reach and remote areas.
But while this collaboration will expand the boundaries of where mobile coverage is possible, it will not displace the fundamental role of wireless infrastructure in delivering most of the world’s wireless network capacity. Instead, it is clear this collaboration is meant to complement, not replace, terrestrial wireless networks—enabling seamless connectivity even in places where it would never be economical, or even possible, to deploy terrestrial infrastructure, such as in remote wilderness or over bodies of water. In fact, initial analysis of where customers are accessing non-terrestrial networks shows that these services are particularly popular within national parks.
In the not-too-far future, SCS service is likely become a standard feature of the wireless ecosystem—part of a layered connectivity model that blends terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks. Mobile users won’t choose between “space” and “ground” connections; devices will dynamically switch between these systems to provide the best connectivity at the given moment.
Still, industry experts point to the technical and economic realities of SCS that will keep towers at the center of the network. Farrar’s analysis points out that even with SpaceX’s next-generation system, which will use the newly acquired spectrum, performance will be roughly equivalent to 4G LTE—not 5G—and users will still need clear line-of-sight to the sky for connectivity. Similarly, New Street Research’s Philip Burnett explained that SCS services “will never work indoors, and will likely never work in urban areas,” underscoring that households and businesses will continue to depend on traditional wireless networks for high-speed, reliable connectivity.
The Bottom Line
The physics of data transmission, the economics of deployment, and the regulatory framework all point to the same conclusion: satellites will supplement wireless networks, not supplant them. Especially as we head into the era of AI innovation, the low latencies and high capacity of terrestrial wireless technology will be needed to support and integrate the next wave of data demand.
So, while more of the sky may soon be filled with Low Earth Orbit satellites, the towers on the ground will remain the foundation of wireless connectivity—standing tall and providing the high-quality mobile experience Americans have come to expect and rely on.
The post Satellite Direct-to-Device Services are Not Replacements for Terrestrial Networks appeared first on Wireless Infrastructure Association.
Read the full story .
